A Spatial Autoregressive Multinomial Probit Model for Anticipating Land Use Change in Austin, Texas

This paper develops an estimation strategy for and then applies a spatial autoregressive multinomial probit (SAR MNP) model to account for both spatial clustering and cross-alternative correlation. Estimation is achieved using Bayesian techniques with Gibbs and the generalized direct sampling (GDS). The model is applied to analyze land development decisions for undeveloped parcels over a 6-year period in Austin, Texas. Results suggest that GDS is a useful method for uncovering parameters whose draws may otherwise fail to converge using standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. Estimation results suggest that residential and commercial/civic development tends to favor more regularly shaped and smaller parcels, which may be related to parcel conversion costs and aesthetics. Longer distances to Austin’s central business district increase the likelihood of residential development, while reducing that of commercial/civic and office/industrial uses. Everything else constant, distances to a parcel’s nearest minor and major arterial roads are estimated to increase development likelihood of commercial/civic and office/industry uses, perhaps because such development is more common in less densely developed locations (as proxied by fewer arterials). As expected, added soil slope is estimated to be negatively associated with residential development, but positively associated with commercial/civic and office/industry uses, though its effect on commercial/civic uses is not significant (perhaps due to some steeper terrains offering view benefits). Estimates of the cross-alternative correlations suggest that a parcel’s residential use “utility” or attractiveness tends to be negatively correlated with that of commercial/civic but positively associated with that of office/industrial uses, while the latter two land uses exhibit some negative correlation. Using an inverse-distance weight matrix for each